California 40th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026 · same-party (top-two) contest
- Projected margin
- R+7.1
- 80% range
- R+18.7 to D+4.3
- Partisan lean
- R+11.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.45%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+6.9
- Blended
- R+6.9
- Similar-race shift
- −0.2
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+11.1
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- −0.8
- Fundraising
- −0.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+6.8
- 2024 margin
- R+12.6
- 2020 margin
- R+7.8
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+4.8
- Votes cast, 2024
- 381,054
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 581,307
- Median age
- 48.7
- Median household income
- $117,200
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 36%
- White
- 51%
- Black
- 5%
- Hispanic
- 29%
- Asian
- 13%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Calvert | REP | $6.1M | $1.5M |
| Esther Kim Varet | DEM | $2.9M | $255k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.