Hawaii 1st District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Ed Case
99.9%
Republican
Maxwell Frazier
0.1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+37.0
- 80% range
- D+23.1 to D+50.8
- Partisan lean
- D+26.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+37.5
- Blended
- D+37.5
- Similar-race shift
- −2.2
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+26.7
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.5
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+39.8