Oregon — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Tina Kotek
77%
Republican
Christine Drazan
23%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+8.6
- 80% range
- R+6.3 to D+23.6
- Partisan lean
- D+15.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.99×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
24%76%
Polls 24%Fundamentals 76%
- Polling average
- D+1.2
- Fundamentals
- D+18.0
- Blended
- D+9.2
- Similar-race shift
- −1.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 16.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- February 4, 2026
- Democrat
- 43.1%
- Republican
- 41.9%
- Undecided / other
- 15.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+15.7
- Elasticity
- 0.90
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+19.0