Oregon — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Tina Kotek
74%
Republican
Christine Drazan
26%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+4.4
- 80% range
- R+4.6 to D+13.4
- Partisan lean
- D+15.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.23×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
44%56%
Polls 44%Fundamentals 56%
- Polling average
- D+1.1
- Fundamentals
- D+18.9
- Blended
- D+4.6
- Similar-race shift
- −1.4
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 17.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- October 1, 2026
- Democrat
- 45.2%
- Republican
- 44.1%
- Undecided / other
- 8.8%
- Spread between polls
- 1.9 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+15.7
- Elasticity
- 0.90
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+20.3
The polls behind this number3 most recent of 3 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research | October 1, 2026 | 549 LV | 46 | 44 | D+2 |
| DHM Research | September 11, 2026 | 600 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
| FM3 ResearchDEM | February 4, 2026 | 1,065 LV | 45 | 40 | D+5 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.