New York 18th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- D+17.8
- 80% range
- D+6.3 to D+29.3
- Partisan lean
- D+5.2
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.29%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+18.1
- Blended
- D+18.1
- Similar-race shift
- −1.7
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+5.2
- Elasticity
- 1.03
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+19.8
- 2024 margin
- D+3.4
- 2020 margin
- D+9.2
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+5.9
- Votes cast, 2024
- 371,418
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 605,234
- Median age
- 50.0
- Median household income
- $88,800
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 35%
- White
- 66%
- Black
- 12%
- Hispanic
- 16%
- Asian
- 4%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ryan | DEM | $4.7M | $3.1M |
| Jackie Mary Auringer | REP | $90k | $61k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.