Wisconsin 3rd District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Rebecca Cooke
38%
Republican
Derrick Van Orden
62%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+2.3
- 80% range
- R+12.0 to D+7.4
- Partisan lean
- R+6.5
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.31%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.02×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
18%82%
Polls 18%Fundamentals 82%
- Polling average
- D+0.2
- Fundamentals
- R+2.1
- Blended
- R+1.7
- Similar-race shift
- +0.9
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- June 25, 2026
- Democrat
- 48.1%
- Republican
- 47.9%
- Undecided / other
- 4.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+6.5
- Elasticity
- 0.93
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.1
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+3.0