Missouri 4th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+16.3
- 80% range
- R+27.9 to R+4.8
- Partisan lean
- R+20.5
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.06%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+16.1
- Blended
- R+16.1
- Similar-race shift
- +1.2
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+20.5
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −3.8
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+17.3
- 2024 margin
- R+21.4
- 2020 margin
- R+19.2
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+2.2
- Votes cast, 2024
- 395,017
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 599,570
- Median age
- 49.4
- Median household income
- $68,900
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 33%
- White
- 82%
- Black
- 8%
- Hispanic
- 5%
- Asian
- 2%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Alford | REP | $1.4M | $747k |
| Jordan Herrera | DEM | $42k | $19k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.