New Hampshire — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Cinde Warmington
18%
Republican
Kelly Ayotte
82%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+6.5
- 80% range
- R+15.5 to D+2.5
- Partisan lean
- D+4.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.23×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
62%38%
Polls 62%Fundamentals 38%
- Polling average
- R+8.4
- Fundamentals
- D+1.8
- Blended
- R+6.3
- Similar-race shift
- −1.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 10.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 4
- Most recent
- September 22, 2026
- Democrat
- 40.6%
- Republican
- 49.0%
- Undecided / other
- 9.8%
- Spread between polls
- 3.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+4.3
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- −5.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.3
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+3.5
The polls behind this number9 most recent of 8 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | September 22, 2026 | 613 LV | 41 | 52 | R+11 |
| University of New Hampshire | September 21, 2026 | 1,418 LV | 43 | 47 | R+4 |
| co/efficient | September 11, 2026 | 958 LV | 34 | 55 | R+21 |
| University of New Hampshire | August 24, 2026 | 1,878 LV | 39 | 49 | R+10 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | August 18, 2026 | 1,411 LV | 38 | 49 | R+11 |
| Saint Anselm | June 25, 2026 | 1,614 RV | 37 | 45 | R+8 |
| University of New Hampshire | June 23, 2026 | — | 39 | 44 | R+5 |
| University of New Hampshire | April 21, 2026 | 1,117 LV | 39 | 47 | R+8 |
| Saint Anselm | March 18, 2026 | 1,491 RV | 39 | 46 | R+7 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.