West Virginia — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Rachel Fetty Anderson
<0.1%
Republican
Shelley Moore Capito
>99.9%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+36.5
- 80% range
- R+48.0 to R+25.0
- Partisan lean
- R+41.6
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+36.3
- Blended
- R+36.3
- Similar-race shift
- +2.7
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+41.6
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −2.7
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+39.0
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelley Moore Capito | REP | $4.6M | $4.4M |
| Zachary C Shrewsbury | DEM | $516k | $-2854 |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.