Kentucky 4th District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
- Projected margin
- R+27.4
- 80% range
- R+39.9 to R+14.8
- Partisan lean
- R+35.1
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+27.1
- Blended
- R+27.1
- Similar-race shift
- +2.6
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+35.1
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −4.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+29.7
- 2024 margin
- R+36.2
- 2020 margin
- R+33.3
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+2.8
- Votes cast, 2024
- 375,012
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 569,659
- Median age
- 49.2
- Median household income
- $75,800
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 31%
- White
- 89%
- Black
- 4%
- Hispanic
- 3%
- Asian
- 2%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Gallrein | REP | $3.6M | $179k |
| Melissa Claire Strange | DEM | $94k | $11k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.