Iowa 4th District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
- Projected margin
- R+24.7
- 80% range
- R+37.1 to R+12.2
- Partisan lean
- R+30.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+24.4
- Blended
- R+24.4
- Similar-race shift
- +1.7
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+30.2
- Elasticity
- 1.01
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −2.6
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+26.1
- 2024 margin
- R+31.9
- 2020 margin
- R+26.5
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+5.4
- Votes cast, 2024
- 393,510
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 613,517
- Median age
- 50.4
- Median household income
- $68,100
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 26%
- White
- 85%
- Black
- 2%
- Hispanic
- 8%
- Asian
- 2%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Mcgowan | REP | $680k | $329k |
| Dave Dawson | DEM | $136k | $50k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.