New Hampshire 2nd District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Maggie Goodlander
89%
Republican
Lily Williams
11%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+14.6
- 80% range
- R+1.0 to D+30.1
- Partisan lean
- D+5.3
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.55%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.08×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- D+19.0
- Fundamentals
- D+14.8
- Blended
- D+15.1
- Similar-race shift
- −1.5
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.2 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- June 25, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.0%
- Republican
- 31.0%
- Undecided / other
- 19.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+5.3
- Elasticity
- 1.01
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +2.1
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+16.3