Wisconsin 4th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- D+59.1
- 80% range
- D+47.7 to D+70.7
- Partisan lean
- D+53.1
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+59.4
- Blended
- D+59.4
- Similar-race shift
- −2.5
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+53.1
- Elasticity
- 0.89
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.1
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+61.8
- 2024 margin
- D+52.5
- 2020 margin
- D+53.7
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+1.3
- Votes cast, 2024
- 345,704
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 558,133
- Median age
- 44.3
- Median household income
- $55,400
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 33%
- White
- 47%
- Black
- 31%
- Hispanic
- 15%
- Asian
- 5%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gwen S Moore | DEM | $1.1M | $29k |
| Purnima Nath | REP | $2k | $5k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.