Minnesota 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Jake Johnson
27%
Republican
Brad Finstad
73%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+6.4
- 80% range
- R+20.3 to D+7.5
- Partisan lean
- R+11.2
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.71%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+5.8
- Blended
- R+5.8
- Similar-race shift
- +1.0
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.2
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.7
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+6.8