New York — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Kathy Hochul
99%
Republican
Bruce Blakeman
1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+15.0
- 80% range
- D+6.6 to D+23.4
- Partisan lean
- D+15.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.08×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
61%39%
Polls 61%Fundamentals 39%
- Polling average
- D+13.2
- Fundamentals
- D+21.1
- Blended
- D+15.2
- Similar-race shift
- −2.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 7.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 10
- Distinct pollsters
- 8
- Most recent
- October 5, 2026
- Democrat
- 52.9%
- Republican
- 39.7%
- Undecided / other
- 7.5%
- Spread between polls
- 3.5 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+15.7
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+23.1
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 10 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 5, 2026 | 900 LV | 52 | 40 | D+13 |
| co/efficientREP | September 25, 2026 | 1,046 LV | 48 | 41 | D+7 |
| Quinnipiac University | September 20, 2026 | 1,026 LV | 58 | 39 | D+19 |
| Concord Public Opinion PartnersDEM | August 21, 2026 | 505 LV | 50 | 34 | D+16 |
| Siena University | August 6, 2026 | 811 LV | 49 | 39 | D+10 |
| Red Oak StrategicREP | July 12, 2026 | 2,000 RV | 47 | 43 | D+4 |
| co/efficient | July 2, 2026 | 1,085 LV | 47 | 41 | D+6 |
| Siena College | June 26, 2026 | 800 RV | 44 | 19 | D+25 |
| Siena University | June 23, 2026 | 1,120 RV | 52 | 32 | D+20 |
| Pollfinity | June 14, 2026 | 229 LV | 50 | 40 | D+10 |
| Siena University | April 30, 2026 | 806 RV | 49 | 33 | D+16 |
| Siena College | March 26, 2026 | 804 RV | 47 | 34 | D+13 |
| Echelon Insights/Tusk Strategies | March 26, 2026 | 500 RV | 55 | 40 | D+15 |
| Siena College | February 26, 2026 | 805 RV | 51 | 31 | D+20 |
| Marist College | February 19, 2026 | 1,442 RV | 50 | 33 | D+17 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.