New York — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Kathy Hochul
89%
Republican
Bruce Blakeman
11%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+11.8
- 80% range
- R+0.8 to D+24.3
- Partisan lean
- D+15.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.57×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
54%46%
Polls 54%Fundamentals 46%
- Polling average
- D+10.2
- Fundamentals
- D+20.3
- Blended
- D+12.3
- Similar-race shift
- −1.6
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 10.1 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 6
- Most recent
- August 6, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.6%
- Republican
- 37.4%
- Undecided / other
- 15.1%
- Spread between polls
- 6.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+15.7
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+21.9