Montana 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Sam Forstag
32%
Republican
Aaron Flint
68%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+4.5
- 80% range
- R+16.7 to D+7.8
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.92%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.50×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+8.8
- Fundamentals
- R+3.4
- Blended
- R+3.9
- Similar-race shift
- +0.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 5.4 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- May 5, 2026
- Democrat
- 41.1%
- Republican
- 49.9%
- Undecided / other
- 9.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.9
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+4.1