New York 15th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- D+76.1
- 80% range
- D+64.6 to D+87.6
- Partisan lean
- D+54.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+76.3
- Blended
- D+76.3
- Similar-race shift
- −1.8
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+54.7
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- +0.6
- Fundraising
- +4.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+78.1
- 2024 margin
- D+48.8
- 2020 margin
- D+71.0
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+22.2
- Votes cast, 2024
- 186,840
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 588,371
- Median age
- 45.7
- Median household income
- $45,500
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 22%
- White
- 10%
- Black
- 42%
- Hispanic
- 51%
- Asian
- 4%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ritchie John Torres | DEM | $6.9M | $14.0M |
| Michel Faulkner | REP | $0 | $232 |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.