Arkansas — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Hallie Shoffner
2%
Republican
Tom Cotton
98%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+15.2
- 80% range
- R+23.8 to R+6.5
- Partisan lean
- R+30.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.13×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
37%63%
Polls 37%Fundamentals 63%
- Polling average
- R+11.4
- Fundamentals
- R+24.4
- Blended
- R+15.0
- Similar-race shift
- +2.1
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 13.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- October 4, 2026
- Democrat
- 39.3%
- Republican
- 50.7%
- Undecided / other
- 6.0%
- Spread between polls
- 2.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+30.4
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −0.7
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+26.6
The polls behind this number3 most recent of 3 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayhouse | October 4, 2026 | 550 LV | 40 | 51 | R+11 |
| J.L. Partners | August 18, 2026 | 803 LV | 35 | 51 | R+16 |
| GrayHouseREP | February 9, 2026 | 550 LV | 36 | 58 | R+22 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Cotton | REP | $6.2M | $9.9M |
| Hallie Shoffner | DEM | $2.3M | $864k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.