Arkansas — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Hallie Shoffner
1%
Republican
Tom Cotton
99%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+21.3
- 80% range
- R+32.0 to R+10.5
- Partisan lean
- R+30.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.25×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
26%74%
Polls 26%Fundamentals 74%
- Polling average
- R+16.0
- Fundamentals
- R+27.4
- Blended
- R+20.7
- Similar-race shift
- +1.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 11.4 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- August 18, 2026
- Democrat
- 35.0%
- Republican
- 51.0%
- Undecided / other
- 10.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+30.4
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −0.8
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+28.4