Kansas — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Adam Hamilton
11%
Republican
Roger Marshall
89%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+10.2
- 80% range
- R+20.9 to D+0.4
- Partisan lean
- R+15.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.22×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
89%
Polls 11%Fundamentals 89%
- Polling average
- R+8.0
- Fundamentals
- R+9.8
- Blended
- R+9.6
- Similar-race shift
- +1.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- January 28, 2026
- Democrat
- 46.0%
- Republican
- 54.0%
- Undecided / other
- 0.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+15.7
- Elasticity
- 0.89
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.8
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+11.1