Iowa — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Rob Sand
81%
Republican
Zach Lahn
19%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+6.1
- 80% range
- R+3.0 to D+15.2
- Partisan lean
- R+11.8
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.24×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
69%31%
Polls 69%Fundamentals 31%
- Polling average
- D+8.1
- Fundamentals
- R+2.4
- Blended
- D+6.3
- Similar-race shift
- +1.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 10.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 15
- Distinct pollsters
- 10
- Most recent
- October 6, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.9%
- Republican
- 42.8%
- Undecided / other
- 6.2%
- Spread between polls
- 2.3 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.8
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+3.4
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 15 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 6, 2026 | 650 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
| CNN/SSRS | October 5, 2026 | 801 LV | 51 | 42 | D+9 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | October 1, 2026 | 606 LV | 52 | 41 | D+11 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | September 28, 2026 | 1,008 LV | 53 | 44 | D+9 |
| Marist University | September 20, 2026 | 1,050 RV | 54 | 42 | D+12 |
| co/efficientREP | September 16, 2026 | 831 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 |
| YouGov | September 8, 2026 | 2,041 LV | 51 | 41 | D+10 |
| YouGov | September 8, 2026 | 2,167 RV | 50 | 39 | D+11 |
| Emerson College | September 1, 2026 | 750 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 |
| Wedgewood Polls | August 29, 2026 | 600 LV | 51 | 46 | D+5 |
| Suffolk University | August 23, 2026 | 500 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
| Emerson College | August 4, 2026 | 712 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | June 27, 2026 | 1,003 RV | 53 | 44 | D+9 |
| CygnalREP | June 19, 2026 | 600 LV | 48 | 43 | D+4 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | June 17, 2026 | 600 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.