Arizona 9th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Danielle Sterbinsky
1%
Republican
Paul Gosar
99%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+28.3
- 80% range
- R+42.1 to R+14.4
- Partisan lean
- R+29.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+27.7
- Blended
- R+27.7
- Similar-race shift
- +0.9
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+29.7
- Elasticity
- 1.01
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −0.7
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+28.7