Arizona 9th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- R+26.1
- 80% range
- R+37.6 to R+14.6
- Partisan lean
- R+29.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+25.9
- Blended
- R+25.9
- Similar-race shift
- +0.9
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+29.7
- Elasticity
- 1.01
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −0.7
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+26.9
- 2024 margin
- R+31.3
- 2020 margin
- R+26.1
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+5.2
- Votes cast, 2024
- 402,472
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 609,223
- Median age
- 50.9
- Median household income
- $72,600
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 22%
- White
- 62%
- Black
- 5%
- Hispanic
- 26%
- Asian
- 3%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Dr. Gosar | REP | $580k | $303k |
| Danielle Sterbinsky | DEM | $354k | $26k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.