Ohio 7th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Brian Poindexter
51%
Republican
Max Miller
49%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+0.3
- 80% range
- R+10.2 to D+10.7
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.54%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.18×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
31%69%
Polls 31%Fundamentals 69%
- Polling average
- D+4.4
- Fundamentals
- R+6.5
- Blended
- D+0.8
- Similar-race shift
- +0.9
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 10.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- August 10, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.7%
- Republican
- 43.3%
- Undecided / other
- 9.0%
- Spread between polls
- 1.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Elasticity
- 0.89
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −1.6
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+7.4