California 11th District
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat · district redrawn for 2026 · same-party (top-two) contest
- Projected margin
- D+82.4
- 80% range
- D+69.9 to D+95.0
- Partisan lean
- D+72.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+82.7
- Blended
- D+82.7
- Similar-race shift
- −2.7
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+72.3
- Elasticity
- 1.01
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.8
- Fundraising
- +4.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+85.4
- 2024 margin
- D+70.6
- 2020 margin
- D+76.1
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+5.4
- Votes cast, 2024
- 361,181
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 664,995
- Median age
- 43.7
- Median household income
- $140,000
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 64%
- White
- 45%
- Black
- 7%
- Hispanic
- 13%
- Asian
- 34%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | DEM | $4.6M | $1.2M |
| David L Ganezer | REP | $60 | $8 |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.