California 49th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- D+24.0
- 80% range
- D+12.4 to D+35.6
- Partisan lean
- D+13.6
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.07%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+24.2
- Blended
- D+24.2
- Similar-race shift
- −1.6
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+13.6
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- +1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+25.8
- 2024 margin
- D+12.5
- 2020 margin
- D+15.5
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+3.0
- Votes cast, 2024
- 388,330
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 591,574
- Median age
- 48.4
- Median household income
- $125,500
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 55%
- White
- 60%
- Black
- 3%
- Hispanic
- 20%
- Asian
- 15%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Levin | DEM | $3.2M | $1.4M |
| Armen Kurdian | REP | $59k | $18k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.