Rhode Island — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Helena Foulkes
94%
Republican
Elaine Pelino
6%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+15.5
- 80% range
- D+3.0 to D+28.0
- Partisan lean
- D+16.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+15.7
- Blended
- D+15.7
- Similar-race shift
- −2.1
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+16.3
- Elasticity
- 1.06
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.2
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+17.8