North Dakota 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Trygve Hammer
0.3%
Republican
Julie Fedorchak
99.7%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+28.5
- 80% range
- R+40.0 to R+17.0
- Partisan lean
- R+36.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+28.3
- Blended
- R+28.3
- Similar-race shift
- +2.1
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+36.3
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+30.4
How it voted for presidenttwo-party
- 2024 margin
- R+37.4
- 2020 margin
- R+34.4
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+3.0
- Votes cast, 2024
- 368,155
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
Who lives hereCensus ACS
- Population
- 596,093
- Median age
- 46.7
- Median household income
- $74,200
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 31%
- White
- 84%
- Black
- 4%
- Hispanic
- 4%
- Asian
- 2%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.