Mississippi — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Ty Pinkins is on the general-election ballot. No public poll has included this candidate, so the model has nothing to estimate a separate probability from and the two-party figures above do not account for them. That is a gap in the available polling, not a judgement about the candidacy.
- Projected margin
- R+14.7
- 80% range
- R+24.2 to R+5.1
- Partisan lean
- R+21.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.34×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- R+9.8
- Fundamentals
- R+17.9
- Blended
- R+14.5
- Similar-race shift
- +1.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 8.1 pts
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- August 15, 2026
- Democrat
- 39.1%
- Republican
- 48.9%
- Undecided / other
- 12.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.3 pts
- Partisan lean
- R+21.2
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.1
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+19.1
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for ProgressDEM | August 15, 2026 | 1,018 LV | 41 | 47 | R+6 |
| Impact ResearchDEM | April 12, 2026 | 500 LV | 44 | 47 | R+3 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cindy Hyde-smith | REP | $3.8M | $2.5M |
| Scott Colom | DEM | $2.4M | $847k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.