Nebraska — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Lynne Walz
17%
Republican
Jim Pillen
83%
Independent
Brett Lindstrom
not rated
Brett Lindstrom is on the general-election ballot. No public poll has included this candidate, so the model has nothing to estimate a separate probability from and the two-party figures above do not account for them. That is a gap in the available polling, not a judgement about the candidacy.
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+11.8
- 80% range
- R+28.2 to D+4.6
- Partisan lean
- R+20.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
88%
Polls 12%Fundamentals 88%
- Polling average
- R+8.8
- Fundamentals
- R+12.0
- Blended
- R+11.6
- Similar-race shift
- +0.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 3.2 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- April 7, 2026
- Democrat
- 31.1%
- Republican
- 39.9%
- Undecided / other
- 29.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+20.2
- Elasticity
- 0.89
- Incumbency
- −5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+12.8
The polls behind this number1 most recent of 1 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingDEM | April 7, 2026 | 670 RV | 33 | 38 | R+5 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.