Nebraska — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Lynne Walz
20%
Republican
Jim Pillen
80%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+13.0
- 80% range
- R+33.1 to D+7.1
- Partisan lean
- R+20.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.82×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
89%
Polls 11%Fundamentals 89%
- Polling average
- R+8.8
- Fundamentals
- R+12.8
- Blended
- R+12.4
- Similar-race shift
- +1.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- April 7, 2026
- Democrat
- 31.1%
- Republican
- 39.9%
- Undecided / other
- 29.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+20.2
- Elasticity
- 0.89
- Incumbency
- −5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+14.1