California 22nd District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Randy Villegas
78%
Republican
David Valadao
22%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+6.6
- 80% range
- R+4.5 to D+17.7
- Partisan lean
- D+3.3
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.31%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.29×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- D+0.2
- Fundamentals
- D+7.9
- Blended
- D+7.2
- Similar-race shift
- −0.6
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 7.7 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- June 21, 2026
- Democrat
- 46.1%
- Republican
- 45.9%
- Undecided / other
- 8.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+3.3
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.1
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+8.4