California 5th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+16.1
- 80% range
- R+27.6 to R+4.6
- Partisan lean
- R+19.3
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.07%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+15.9
- Blended
- R+15.9
- Similar-race shift
- +0.5
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+19.3
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −1.6
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+16.4
- 2024 margin
- R+21.2
- 2020 margin
- R+14.8
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+6.4
- Votes cast, 2024
- 362,461
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 599,254
- Median age
- 50.4
- Median household income
- $85,000
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 28%
- White
- 59%
- Black
- 3%
- Hispanic
- 26%
- Asian
- 8%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Mcclintock | REP | $929k | $201k |
| Michael Masuda | DEM | $362k | $89k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.