Arizona — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Katie Hobbs
83%
Republican
Andy Biggs
17%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+6.5
- 80% range
- R+2.4 to D+15.4
- Partisan lean
- R+3.8
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.20×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
61%39%
Polls 61%Fundamentals 39%
- Polling average
- D+6.8
- Fundamentals
- D+6.7
- Blended
- D+6.7
- Similar-race shift
- −0.6
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 0.1 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 10
- Distinct pollsters
- 10
- Most recent
- October 9, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.3%
- Republican
- 40.5%
- Undecided / other
- 11.3%
- Spread between polls
- 4.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+3.8
- Elasticity
- 1.03
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+7.3
The polls behind this number15 most recent of 10 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equis Research | October 9, 2026 | 1,214 RV | 49 | 43 | D+6 |
| BSP Research | September 4, 2026 | — LV | 47 | 34 | D+13 |
| NextGen Polling | August 19, 2026 | 1,627 RV | 39 | 38 | D+1 |
| HighGround | August 18, 2026 | 400 LV | 50 | 34 | D+16 |
| Quantus Insights | August 17, 2026 | 780 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 |
| Kreate StrategiesREP | August 16, 2026 | 900 LV | 45 | 40 | D+5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | August 13, 2026 | 923 LV | 48 | 35 | D+13 |
| Stealth Analytics | August 13, 2026 | 530 LV | 43 | 38 | D+5 |
| The Tarrance Group | July 30, 2026 | 600 LV | 52 | 48 | D+4 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | July 28, 2026 | 913 LV | 52 | 44 | D+8 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | May 7, 2026 | 996 RV | 41 | 37 | D+4 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 26, 2026 | 1,023 RV | 42 | 37 | D+5 |
| Center for Excellence in Polling | January 24, 2026 | 519 LV | 50 | 41 | D+9 |
| NextGen P | December 17, 2025 | 2,725 LV | 51 | 32 | D+19 |
| Emerson College | November 10, 2025 | 850 RV | 44 | 43 | D+1 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.