Minnesota 5th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
DeVelle L. Jackson is on the general-election ballot. No public poll has included this candidate, so the model has nothing to estimate a separate probability from and the two-party figures above do not account for them. That is a gap in the available polling, not a judgement about the candidacy.
- Projected margin
- D+67.4
- 80% range
- D+55.9 to D+78.8
- Partisan lean
- D+64.1
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+67.6
- Blended
- D+67.6
- Similar-race shift
- −2.5
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+64.1
- Elasticity
- 0.88
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+70.1
- 2024 margin
- D+63.5
- 2020 margin
- D+64.4
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+0.9
- Votes cast, 2024
- 369,401
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 571,885
- Median age
- 42.1
- Median household income
- $79,800
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 50%
- White
- 65%
- Black
- 17%
- Hispanic
- 9%
- Asian
- 7%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar | DEM | $5.8M | $1.3M |
| John Nagel | REP | $747k | $47k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.