Maine — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Hannah Pingree
93%
Republican
Robert Charles
7%
Independent
Rick Bennett
not rated
Rick Bennett is on the general-election ballot. No public poll has included this candidate, so the model has nothing to estimate a separate probability from and the two-party figures above do not account for them. That is a gap in the available polling, not a judgement about the candidacy.
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+10.2
- 80% range
- D+1.5 to D+18.9
- Partisan lean
- D+8.0
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.15×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
61%39%
Polls 61%Fundamentals 39%
- Polling average
- D+11.6
- Fundamentals
- D+8.7
- Blended
- D+10.4
- Similar-race shift
- −1.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.9 pts
PollingDRI matchup
- Polls in window
- 10
- Distinct pollsters
- 8
- Most recent
- October 5, 2026
- Democrat
- 49.2%
- Republican
- 37.7%
- Independent
- 6.5%
- Undecided / other
- 6.6%
- Spread between polls
- 1.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+8.0
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+10.4
The polls behind this number13 most recent of 10 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | October 5, 2026 | 800 LV | 49 | 36 | D+13 |
| Marist University | October 4, 2026 | 1,505 RV | 52 | 40 | D+12 |
| co/efficient | September 30, 2026 | 1,240 LV | 47 | 38 | D+9 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | September 22, 2026 | 619 LV | 47 | 34 | D+13 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | September 22, 2026 | 982 LV | 52 | 39 | D+13 |
| University of New Hampshire | September 21, 2026 | 1,312 LV | 48 | 40 | D+8 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | September 14, 2026 | 650 LV | 49 | 38 | D+11 |
| YouGov | September 8, 2026 | 1,334 LV | 47 | 36 | D+11 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | August 10, 2026 | 1,000 RV | 49 | 38 | D+11 |
| University of New Hampshire | July 20, 2026 | 1,178 LV | 49 | 35 | D+14 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | June 27, 2026 | 1,003 RV | 53 | 42 | D+11 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | June 26, 2026 | 608 LV | 55 | 40 | D+15 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | June 26, 2026 | 608 LV | 50 | 36 | D+14 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.