Maine 2nd District
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat · ranked-choice voting
Democrat
Matthew Dunlap
33%
Republican
Paul LePage
67%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+3.8
- 80% range
- R+14.8 to D+7.3
- Partisan lean
- R+8.5
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.02%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.29×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
22%78%
Polls 22%Fundamentals 78%
- Polling average
- R+6.7
- Fundamentals
- D+0.5
- Blended
- R+3.2
- Similar-race shift
- +0.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 7.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- April 29, 2026
- Democrat
- 42.0%
- Republican
- 48.8%
- Undecided / other
- 9.2%
- Spread between polls
- 2.6 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+8.5
- Elasticity
- 0.95
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +2.6
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+0.1