Vermont — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Amanda Janoo
29%
Republican
Phil Scott
71%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+7.2
- 80% range
- R+24.1 to D+9.7
- Partisan lean
- D+34.1
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.30×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
53%48%
Polls 53%Fundamentals 48%
- Polling average
- R+11.3
- Fundamentals
- D+20.8
- Blended
- R+6.6
- Similar-race shift
- −1.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 32.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 20, 2026
- Democrat
- 31.9%
- Republican
- 43.2%
- Undecided / other
- 23.3%
- Spread between polls
- 1.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+34.1
- Elasticity
- 0.96
- Incumbency
- −5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+22.5