Vermont — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Amanda Janoo
91%
Republican
Phil Scott
9%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+9.2
- 80% range
- D+0.2 to D+18.1
- Partisan lean
- D+34.1
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.20×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
35%66%
Polls 35%Fundamentals 66%
- Polling average
- D+5.8
- Fundamentals
- D+21.5
- Blended
- D+9.4
- Similar-race shift
- −2.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 15.7 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- September 21, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.7%
- Republican
- 41.8%
- Undecided / other
- 8.6%
- Spread between polls
- 6.4 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+34.1
- Elasticity
- 0.96
- Incumbency
- −5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+23.8
The polls behind this number3 most recent of 3 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | September 21, 2026 | 835 LV | 49 | 43 | D+6 |
| University of New Hampshire | July 20, 2026 | 954 LV | 33 | 44 | R+11 |
| University of New Hampshire | June 23, 2026 | 511 LV | 27 | 42 | R+15 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.