Illinois — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
JB Pritzker
99%
Republican
Darren Bailey
1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+17.3
- 80% range
- D+9.1 to D+25.5
- Partisan lean
- D+13.0
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.02×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
24%76%
Polls 24%Fundamentals 76%
- Polling average
- D+16.2
- Fundamentals
- D+17.9
- Blended
- D+17.4
- Similar-race shift
- −2.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.6 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- October 1, 2026
- Democrat
- 52.1%
- Republican
- 35.9%
- Undecided / other
- 6.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+13.0
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+19.8
The polls behind this number2 most recent of 2 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingDEM | October 1, 2026 | 569 LV | 54 | 34 | D+20 |
| Victory Research | November 24, 2025 | 1,208 LV | 54 | 34 | D+20 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.