Texas 2nd District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+12.0
- 80% range
- R+24.5 to D+0.6
- Partisan lean
- R+22.5
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.21%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+11.8
- Blended
- R+11.8
- Similar-race shift
- +1.0
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+22.5
- Elasticity
- 0.89
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.1
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+12.7
- 2024 margin
- R+23.1
- 2020 margin
- R+21.8
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+1.3
- Votes cast, 2024
- 337,080
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 565,217
- Median age
- 46.1
- Median household income
- $97,900
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 41%
- White
- 53%
- Black
- 12%
- Hispanic
- 26%
- Asian
- 7%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Finnie | DEM | $2.7M | $1.5M |
| Steve Toth | REP | $824k | $153k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.