Tennessee — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Jerri Green
4%
Republican
Marsha Blackburn
96%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+13.8
- 80% range
- R+23.9 to R+3.7
- Partisan lean
- R+28.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.48×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
29%71%
Polls 29%Fundamentals 71%
- Polling average
- R+13.0
- Fundamentals
- R+13.8
- Blended
- R+13.6
- Similar-race shift
- +2.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 0.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- August 26, 2026
- Democrat
- 33.0%
- Republican
- 46.0%
- Undecided / other
- 13.2%
- Spread between polls
- 1.5 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+28.2
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+16.1
The polls behind this number3 most recent of 3 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | August 26, 2026 | 1,149 RV | 33 | 46 | R+13 |
| Targoz Market Research | April 27, 2026 | 1,157 RV | 27 | 51 | R+24 |
| Quantus InsightsREP | August 7, 2025 | 600 RV | 28 | 49 | R+21 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.