Mississippi 4th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- R+38.7
- 80% range
- R+50.3 to R+27.2
- Partisan lean
- R+41.6
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+38.5
- Blended
- R+38.5
- Similar-race shift
- +2.4
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+41.6
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −3.7
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+40.9
- 2024 margin
- R+43.0
- 2020 margin
- R+38.6
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+4.4
- Votes cast, 2024
- 293,879
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 567,730
- Median age
- 48.8
- Median household income
- $56,000
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 24%
- White
- 68%
- Black
- 23%
- Hispanic
- 4%
- Asian
- 2%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walter Michael Ezell | REP | $990k | $123k |
| Jeffrey Hulum | DEM | $29k | $7k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.