Vermont 1st District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Rebecca Balint
>99.9%
Republican
Gerald Malloy
<0.1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+39.0
- 80% range
- D+28.4 to D+49.6
- Partisan lean
- D+34.1
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.22×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
86%
Polls 14%Fundamentals 86%
- Polling average
- D+37.7
- Fundamentals
- D+39.9
- Blended
- D+39.6
- Similar-race shift
- −1.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.2 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 20, 2026
- Democrat
- 62.4%
- Republican
- 24.7%
- Undecided / other
- 11.2%
- Spread between polls
- 2.6 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+34.1
- Elasticity
- 0.96
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- D+41.6