Florida 5th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- R+14.2
- 80% range
- R+25.7 to R+2.7
- Partisan lean
- R+19.9
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.10%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+14.0
- Blended
- R+14.0
- Similar-race shift
- +1.1
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+19.9
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+15.2
- 2024 margin
- R+21.7
- 2020 margin
- R+16.0
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+5.7
- Votes cast, 2024
- 439,074
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 606,741
- Median age
- 48.1
- Median household income
- $82,200
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 44%
- White
- 67%
- Black
- 13%
- Hispanic
- 11%
- Asian
- 7%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Rutherford | REP | $727k | $269k |
| Rachel Grage | DEM | $272k | $91k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.