Florida 24th District
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- D+60.8
- 80% range
- D+48.2 to D+73.4
- Partisan lean
- D+43.9
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+61.0
- Blended
- D+61.0
- Similar-race shift
- −0.6
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+43.9
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.1
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+61.6
- 2024 margin
- D+39.1
- 2020 margin
- D+56.9
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+17.8
- Votes cast, 2024
- 278,540
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 605,907
- Median age
- 46.8
- Median household income
- $52,800
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 22%
- White
- 12%
- Black
- 48%
- Hispanic
- 41%
- Asian
- 2%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver G. Gilbert | DEM | $812k | $229k |
| Te Brown | REP | $313k | $299k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.