Florida — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Angie Nixon
16%
Republican
Ashley Moody
84%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+6.3
- 80% range
- R+14.4 to D+1.8
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.00×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
61%39%
Polls 61%Fundamentals 39%
- Polling average
- R+6.0
- Fundamentals
- R+6.2
- Blended
- R+6.1
- Similar-race shift
- +0.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 0.2 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 10
- Distinct pollsters
- 7
- Most recent
- October 7, 2026
- Democrat
- 43.0%
- Republican
- 49.0%
- Undecided / other
- 7.8%
- Spread between polls
- 3.5 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +2.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+6.8
The polls behind this number13 most recent of 10 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | October 7, 2026 | 836 LV | 45 | 47 | R+2 |
| Targoz Market Research | October 4, 2026 | 857 LV | 42 | 52 | R+10 |
| Targoz Market Research | October 4, 2026 | 1,200 RV | 38 | 50 | R+12 |
| Change Research | September 27, 2026 | 1,063 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | September 21, 2026 | 600 LV | 42 | 49 | R+8 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | September 21, 2026 | 830 LV | 40 | 51 | R+11 |
| St. Pete Polls | September 17, 2026 | 913 LV | 45 | 45 | R+0 |
| Quantus Insights | September 10, 2026 | 733 LV | 43 | 50 | R+7 |
| Change Research | September 9, 2026 | 1,107 LV | 47 | 47 | D+0 |
| University of North Florida | July 17, 2026 | 848 LV | 42 | 50 | R+8 |
| Stetson University | April 13, 2026 | 848 LV | 38 | 51 | R+13 |
| Emerson College | March 31, 2026 | 1,125 LV | 36 | 47 | R+11 |
| University of North Florida | March 2, 2026 | 768 LV | 38 | 46 | R+8 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Vindman | DEM | $16.3M | $7.3M |
| Ashley Moody | REP | $11.3M | $8.5M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.