Florida — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Angie Nixon
12%
Republican
Ashley Moody
88%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+8.7
- 80% range
- R+18.4 to D+0.9
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.03×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
35%65%
Polls 35%Fundamentals 65%
- Polling average
- R+8.0
- Fundamentals
- R+8.2
- Blended
- R+8.1
- Similar-race shift
- +0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 0.2 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 4
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- July 17, 2026
- Democrat
- 41.8%
- Republican
- 49.8%
- Undecided / other
- 8.4%
- Spread between polls
- 1.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.4
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +2.4
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+8.4