Florida 13th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Leela Gray
14%
Republican
Anna Paulina Luna
86%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+9.3
- 80% range
- R+20.6 to D+2.1
- Partisan lean
- R+11.7
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.40%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.35×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+8.0
- Fundamentals
- R+8.8
- Blended
- R+8.7
- Similar-race shift
- +0.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 0.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 22, 2026
- Democrat
- 41.0%
- Republican
- 49.0%
- Undecided / other
- 10.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.7
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −1.1
- National environment
- D+5.4
- Expected margin
- R+9.6