Colorado 5th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- R+2.4
- 80% range
- R+13.9 to D+9.1
- Partisan lean
- R+9.3
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.90%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+2.2
- Blended
- R+2.2
- Similar-race shift
- +0.5
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+9.3
- Elasticity
- 0.88
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.8
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+2.7
- 2024 margin
- R+9.3
- 2020 margin
- R+10.5
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- D+1.2
- Votes cast, 2024
- 375,473
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 551,904
- Median age
- 44.6
- Median household income
- $83,600
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 40%
- White
- 69%
- Black
- 8%
- Hispanic
- 15%
- Asian
- 5%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Willow Killin | DEM | $3.1M | $1.6M |
| Jeff Crank | REP | $2.2M | $1.5M |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.