Oregon — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Jeff Merkley
99.7%
Republican
David Brock Smith
0.3%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+27.7
- 80% range
- D+16.1 to D+39.2
- Partisan lean
- D+15.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
>99.9%
Fundamentals >99.9%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+27.9
- Blended
- D+27.9
- Similar-race shift
- −1.4
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+15.7
- Elasticity
- 0.90
- Incumbency
- +4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.9
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+29.4
Campaign fundraisingFEC filings to Invalid Date
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Alan Merkley | DEM | $4.5M | $6.8M |
| David Brock Smith | REP | $121k | $29k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.