Illinois 3rd District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- D+52.0
- 80% range
- D+40.5 to D+63.6
- Partisan lean
- D+34.8
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+52.3
- Blended
- D+52.3
- Similar-race shift
- −2.3
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+34.8
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.1
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+54.6
- 2024 margin
- D+31.8
- 2020 margin
- D+42.3
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+10.5
- Votes cast, 2024
- 268,964
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 588,880
- Median age
- 45.0
- Median household income
- $83,200
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 35%
- White
- 43%
- Black
- 6%
- Hispanic
- 44%
- Asian
- 7%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delia Ramirez | DEM | $1.5M | $946k |
| Angel Oakley | REP | $8k | $4k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.