California 30th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
- Projected margin
- D+52.2
- 80% range
- D+40.7 to D+63.8
- Partisan lean
- D+42.8
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+52.4
- Blended
- D+52.4
- Similar-race shift
- −2.5
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- D+42.8
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- +1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.9
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+54.9
- 2024 margin
- D+41.4
- 2020 margin
- D+45.8
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+4.4
- Votes cast, 2024
- 341,501
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 649,328
- Median age
- 45.3
- Median household income
- $85,500
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 49%
- White
- 57%
- Black
- 5%
- Hispanic
- 22%
- Asian
- 15%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Friedman | DEM | $828k | $469k |
| Scott Alan Meyers | REP | $58k | $3k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.