Counts come from the states’ own election-night results sites, read about once a minute. Where we cannot read a state’s site, its count comes from civicAPI, which gathers official results, and says so beside each race. Each state is held until its last polls close. Counts are unofficial until certified, and early counts can lean either way depending on which ballots a county reports first.

Calls are never ours. A race is shown as called when AP or DDHQ calls it, or 2 other desks agree, and never while any desk disagrees. Each call names the desk that made it.

Chance of control now rereads the forecast’s final run (2026-10-29) in the light of the races called so far: the simulations that got those races right weigh more, so a surprise in one race moves similar races still counting. It uses calls, not partial counts.

From the state’s own site (32 states): Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia.

Via civicAPI (15 states), with the official results linked: Alaska, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maine, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Wyoming. We check its counts for the other states against our own as they come in.

Other states, where we link to the official results instead: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana. Races there are still shown, with their calls.