Minnesota — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Amy Klobuchar
89%
Republican
Lisa Demuth
11%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+9.1
- 80% range
- R+0.3 to D+18.5
- Partisan lean
- D+5.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.31×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
43%57%
Polls 43%Fundamentals 57%
- Polling average
- D+10.9
- Fundamentals
- D+8.1
- Blended
- D+9.3
- Similar-race shift
- −0.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 5
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- September 14, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.3%
- Republican
- 39.4%
- Undecided / other
- 10.3%
- Spread between polls
- 3.2 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+5.4
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- D+8.8
The polls behind this number5 most recent of 5 in the window
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | D | R | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | September 14, 2026 | 654 LV | 50 | 40 | D+10 |
| SurveyUSA | August 17, 2026 | 661 LV | 53 | 36 | D+17 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | June 10, 2026 | 800 LV | 48 | 40 | D+8 |
| Emerson College | February 8, 2026 | 1,000 LV | 51 | 38 | D+13 |
| SurveyUSA | January 30, 2026 | 575 RV | 49 | 34 | D+15 |
Each poll is weighted by recency, the square root of its sample size and its pollster rating, then adjusted for that firm’s house effect, its sampled population and any partisan sponsorship — so the average above is not the mean of this column.