Indiana 4th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
- Projected margin
- R+24.1
- 80% range
- R+35.6 to R+12.5
- Partisan lean
- R+29.5
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+23.8
- Blended
- R+23.8
- Similar-race shift
- +1.7
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
- Partisan lean
- R+29.5
- Elasticity
- 0.88
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −3.2
- National environment
- D+7.1
- Expected margin
- R+25.5
- 2024 margin
- R+29.9
- 2020 margin
- R+29.8
- Shift 2020 → 2024
- R+0.1
- Votes cast, 2024
- 333,989
Presidential results reaggregated onto the 2026 district lines. This is where the seat’s partisan lean comes from, and it carries most of the forecast in a race nobody has polled.
- Population
- 577,297
- Median age
- 47.7
- Median household income
- $73,400
- Bachelor’s degree or higher
- 31%
- White
- 83%
- Black
- 4%
- Hispanic
- 6%
- Asian
- 4%
Used to find demographically similar districts, so a race with no polling can borrow the polling error of races that look like it.
| Candidate | Party | Raised | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| James R Dr. Baird | REP | $358k | $92k |
| Drew Cox | DEM | $20k | $7k |
Receipts across the cycle, from FEC bulk filings. The model uses the ratio between the two sides rather than either total, and weights it lightly — money follows a competitive race at least as much as it causes one.